A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
