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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, joking that if our conversation proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up talk in 2026.

There is rarely ever downtime for leaders. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to work out exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his close political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When the discussion, which was much longer than normal, had finished, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year starts, the Prime Minister appears to have had a degree of a revitalisation. Maybe even just a bit of a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have left him in improved morale than at the difficult tail end of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his colleagues being unrealistic if they reckon his standing are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the leader is that many of his colleagues think he's underperforming at his job. Some of them would rather take a risk and get him out in 2026.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "judged at the poll", maintaining nobody would strip his five-year mandate from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 could be for Labour to switch leader.

"This is the struggle of our generation and I intend to be at the forefront," he declared.

The Spring Test

The problem for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to protest, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir suggesting that there were no scenario under which he would step down, should one of his MPs challenged him for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He attempted to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was naturally anxious for things to get better. He aimed to persuade the interviewer, and the public, that this year would be different.

The economy would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the government enacted during their first choppy year began to take effect.

• He vowed to shut asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he did not set a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it wasn't a certainty, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western partners were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His core point is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The PM may have communicated with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a while – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering pressure from many directions for a more decisive strategy, with much more political clarity, more dynamism, more speed and more immediacy, his arguments were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political difficulty, should he consider a different script?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for many months, gets everything its as planned.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not just because governing is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, including in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when past remarks he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing obvious political risks as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over many years, the thought he would be content with these events seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but the public "just haven't got the complete details at the moment".

Critics called for him to condemn it before we spoke. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has consistently been growing pressure in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's doing that, but his new more concrete commitment to move closer with the single market – the huge economic European market – will likely provoke protests that he is reneging on his promise never to try to undo the decisions that followed Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will delight a faction on his own side, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to